How Analytics Should Shape Narratives In Modern Sports Media
In today’s sports world, there seems to be a perception that an overreliance on analytics is ruining football and basketball. However sports are constantly evolving, and with that comes new ways to look at them. The NBA did not even officially track blocks and steals until 1973. Ever since then, steals per game and blocks per game have become key stats. Sports analytics is simply the search for what matters most; is there anything wrong with using analytics to improve shot selection in the NBA? There are people that criticize the use of analytics but are willing to make or break a player’s draft position and career based on numbers at the combine?
How Narratives Impact Athletes
I genuinely believe that analytics benefits an athlete more than any media perception, preconceived bias, or prisoner of the moment factor. We had to listen to the talk that Lamar Jackson should consider a switch to receiver, and he even refused to run the 40-yard dash because of that fact. LeBron James had to shake a not-clutch narrative despite the fact he has the most playoff game-winners in NBA history. Dwight Howard somehow did not make the NBA 75 despite 8 All-NBA selections, 2 Finals appearances, a championship, and leading the NBA in blocks or rebounds 7 times. These become even more apparent in the digital age wherein the NBA, media voting heavily impacts the DPOY and MVP awards. Even aside from that, a player’s brand and standing are much more volatile in the digital age. It may seem harmless but take this example from a 2012 SB Nation article:
“If the Knicks win, leading with Carmelo Anthony’s scoring numbers has a different impact than leading with Kristaps Porzingis’ shooting. If the Knicks lose, focusing on Derrick Rose’s defensive deficiencies has a different impact than looking at Anthony’s lack of efficiency. (The fact that I just put “Derrick Rose” next to “defensive deficiencies” apropos of nothing has an impact in some recess of some reader’s brain.)
These decisions — all innocent — all shape the narrative around the players. These narratives all impact award votes, contracts, fan sentiment. And they are impossible to avoid every single day”.
Interestingly, NBA players used to be involved in the MVP voting instead of the media until 1980.
How Analytics Helps Athletes Beat Narratives
This past year we heard more talk of if teams will “figure out” Lamar Jackson. A very condescending question that just giving an answer, either way, will negatively impact his perceived ceiling. When it comes to him, his full talents are not appreciated. He was the NFL passing touchdowns leader in 2019, a list that in the last 15 years only includes Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Phillip Rivers, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, and Aaron Rodgers.
These perceptions are powerful, we can look at the numbers with two other amazing dual-threat quarterbacks: Josh Allen up to the time of my article, compared to Cam Newton in 2014:
Cam Newtown was 6'5 245 lbs. in his 4th season. Josh Allen is 6'5 237 lbs in his 4th season. Both players had 7 rushing attempts per game. While Josh Allen’s prior season was amazing passing-wise, Cam Newton threw 2000 more passing yards in his first season than Josh Allen. Josh Allen has drawn comparisons to Cam Newton before and yet there is no consistent talk of the league “figuring out” Josh Allen.
How Analytics Helps Athletes Discourse
It is very easy to go on a deep rabbit hole on how underrated Jordan Poyer is, and Micah Hyde for that matter. Analysts have a field day showing the amazing value add of these two players. Unfortunately, major media discourse values engagement more than insight in the social media era and that is frustrating because it underestimates the audience. There are many more interesting conversations to be had when discussing what features and stats we value more, instead of pretending anything is as simple as it seems.
Many think that Aaron Rodgers is the clear MVP. But if you look at how Brady, despite leading the league in most completions lost due to receiver error, has the most passing touchdowns this season (40), more passing yards per game (313) than Aaron Rodgers (257), and the second-best QBR this season, it makes it clear the MVP race is not the lock people think it is. Or how Aaron Donald may deserve DPOY again because of his WAR (wins above replacement) and snap count while being a leader on a top 10 defense. But then it begs the question of could you really not give it to T.J. Watt when he tied Michael Strahan’s single-season sack record? Or could you really not give the MVP to Aaron Rodgers after having a 37-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio? These are examples of how intertwining analytics and story lead to much better discourse.
Conclusion
The notion that advanced analytics is a detriment to the games, coaching, etc. should be put to rest. Any new source of information should be appreciated, on a low level ask any young athlete about using Hudl if they study tendencies from their next opponent based on past games. Whether it is by hand or by code, information should be used. Coaches also will always matter because of experience, strategy, preparation, team culture, communication with players before and during the game, and load management. These are all irreplaceable.
The false dichotomy behind eye-balling and analytics needs to end because it never existed. Sports have always had statistics, the only difference is that there are more people now appreciating nuances that make them wonder if there are other stats to be looked at.
